[my Ashford MAIN page]  [^^^PNS home page]
Techno Waves

See also:  -[]-

techno-waves.html
this-file:  frhl-techno-waves-future-debate-01


 "How DO you keep 'em down on the farm?"

This goes back to an old adage of how once kids 
have seen the "big city" they don't want to just
be plain old farmers. So, these days, i might
ask the question:

  How do you get 'em to take differential
  equations when insurance claims adjusters
  are making $200K + bonus'es??

I keep meeting all of these bright young kids (sort
of reminds me of when is was a youngish nerdling),
and they're all wizzing thru maths and science like
it was so much cheese wiz. Sheesh, even i had more
trouble than that. 

And then when i ask them what they're planning to be
it's an accountant, or a financial analyst, or a med
tech or a lawyer. And that's because they know (or 
at least think) that those will be always-in-demand-jobs. 
They can see the aging population all around them 
(ye cats! even *i*'m aging! ;) so med tech - like 
money in the bank.

And they see all of the pop stars and such on tv and
of course wanna be like them, but then things like
"American Idol" and the reality shows about the stars
and such show how much real fun that is. And then law
suits: Ah! Atourney!!! And of course, someone has to
count all of those rich people's money and advise them
to invest it: Ah! Financian Planner, Accountant, etc.

But, of course we (the "we" is supposedly in charge
here of THE future) know that we'll be needing scientists
and such in the future. But, where will they come from?
Of course, then there's the EDU influx from other 
countries into the USA (and most likely Western European
countries as well) from the so-called "third-world".
Ah! They're the ones majoring in Computer Science. 
And, then there doesn't even seem any interest in 
physics and chemistry and all of that. Too much 
memorisation and where would you work or even
GET work anyway?

So, the whole mess is swirling more and more towards
the money-worshiping civilisation that communism feared
would be the end product of capitalistic evolution (or
would it be de-evolution from the communist POV?).

Enter the Futurists (e-commerce wise)
=====================================

One of the completely typical "futurists" is James Canton
who is CEO of The Intstitute for Global Futures, and his
latest book "The Extreme Future" outlines the coming
talent war, for example, he outlines the "Top Ten WorkForce"
trends:

    1. A global war for talent will be the top
       driver of competitive advantage, pitting
       nations and individuals, and companies
       against one another as talent grows scarce.

    2. The future of the workforce should not be
       defined by geography, but by talent.

    3. The aging population in America and
       Europe will have dramatic effects on 
       society and the economy.

    4. Hispanics and women will dominate the
       U.S. workforce.

    5. Women will comprise a high percentage of
       new workers and leaders, forever changing
       the politics of boardrooms and markets.

    6. Increased immigration will be necessary to
       enable available talent to keep up with the
       demands of business and society.

    7. Finding high-tech skilled employees from a
       global talent pool will be the greatest 
       challenge for every organization and
       every nation.

    8. Innovation will be a key driver of workforce
       skills, requiring the education system to be
       completely overhauled.

    9. The domestic workforce will grow more slowly
       because of dangerously lower fertility rates.

   10. Workforce crises that arise in the near future
       will be traceable to lack of skilled workers.
   (Canton, 2006, P. 90)

Now, there's nothing unique about this POV - in fact
it's part and parcel with the entire "New American Century"
that's already placed us on the road of war over oil. The
warning signs have been there for years. See for example,
"Three Days of the Condor" (film version) - as one of 
the characters in the film says, "And when there's no
more oil, they [The American Public] won't ask why, 
they'll just want us to get the oil." - not an exact
quote - and that was in 1977; ie, about a quarter of
a century before the facts started to play out.

Canton goes on to paint a picture of how the American
work force will change in the next few years (and 
remember that Canton who refers to himself as 
"As a futurist managing a global think tank", so 
he's got quite a few people listening - who would dare
not? And remember he's one of the good guys, who's
at least concerned with what all of this change 
may do to "the common man in the street." He writes:

   Our world is changing fast. Cutting-edge 
   innovations offer infomration at blazing
   speed. New threats to security greet us
   each morning in the headlines. Digital
   commerce races around the world in 
   nanoseconds. Amid all of this speed, 
   innovation, and change, however, one 
   challenge in particular has the potential 
   to enhance or destroy the future of
   the U.S. economy: Preparing for the next
   workforce and the coming talent war.

      This is a vitally important Extreme
   Future trend that will affect generations
   of citizens and corporations, as well as 
   the nation's influence around the world.
   As a result, it must be addressed soon.
   America's workforce is changing in fundamental
   ways. This is an undeniable reality that is
   unraveling fast all around us. Today there
   are more than one million high-tech jobs
   that are not filled. This shortage is not 
   just about people, but a lack of skills.
   Companies in the Innovative Economy, those
   on the front lines like Apple, Intel, and 
   MicroSoft, have gone off-shore to do research
   and new product development because they 
   cannot get the same talent here. Talent, 
   skilled human capital, innovative high-tech
   savy people independent of any nation will 
   be the lifeblood of the future organization.
                            (Canton, Pp. 91-92)

And this idea of the ever present danger of THE un-seen
enemy isn't just fluff, it occurs again and again in
the writing (and remember i'm just using him as an
example, there are literally hundreds of these think-tank
gurus that have the movers and shakers listening).

Of course, where this is being driven is towards high-tech,
high-speed change. As it turns out, this is nothing new in
terms of how technology evovles. The well-known Moore's 
Law of circuit density doubling every so often (and 
accelerating) has been interpreted to also mean that in
the next few years, we may find we have computers so 
complex, that there simply aren't enough programmers to
program to their full capacity. That is, if the best
computer programers can produce a maximum of 5_000 lines
of "c" code (about 1/2 that in Java) in a week, then at
some point it would take every man, woman, and child on
the planet programming around the clock to fill the code
requirements that some technologists see as early as 2020.

Of course, one drive here is towards AI's that will be
able to program other applications. We might think of
this as a "toaster programmer". We create a learning
machine and teach it (do we already need a gender-neutral
third-person singular for a self-aware creature?). Anyway,
we program it with everything about toasters, and it goes
off and designs and builds the next NEW generation of
toasters. We may soon be surrounded by technology that
we can't even recognise because it's designed to work
with other technology that we use, and there's no need
to "humanify" the technology on the other side of the 
human-mech-mech wall. 


References

  Canton, James (2006). The Extreme Future.
          ??City??: ??publisher??.

  Canton, James (no date). THe Good, Bad, and Ugly of
          Business Continuity in the 21st Century.      
          http://www.globalfuturist.com/images/docs/businesscontinuity.pdf
          last accessed 2008.05.13. at 17:52 CAH +5GMT.

 Pollock, Syndey (Director) (1975). Three Days of the Condor.
          imdb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0073802/